[1]李莉,孟蕾,王斌,等.ARIMA模型在预测甘肃省梅毒月发病情况中的应用[J].中国皮肤性病学杂志,2015,(02):160-163.[doi:10.13735/j.cjdv.1001-7089.201403025]
 LI Li,MENG Lei,WANG Bin,et al.Using ARIMA model of syphilis incidence in every moth in Gansu Province[J].The Chinese Journal of Dermatovenereology,2015,(02):160-163.[doi:10.13735/j.cjdv.1001-7089.201403025]
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ARIMA模型在预测甘肃省梅毒月发病情况中的应用
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《中国皮肤性病学杂志》[ISSN:1001-7089/CN:61-1197/R]

卷:
期数:
2015年02期
页码:
160-163
栏目:
性传播疾病
出版日期:
2015-02-01

文章信息/Info

Title:
Using ARIMA model of syphilis incidence in every moth in Gansu Province
作者:
李莉孟蕾王斌杨明宇苟伟斌郁华石林
甘肃省疾病预防控制中心性病艾滋病科,甘肃 兰州 730000
Author(s):
LI LiMENG LeiWANG BinYANG MingyuGOU WeibinYU HuaSHI Lin
Gansu Center for Disease Control and Prevention,Lanzhou 730000,China
关键词:
梅毒ARIMA模型预测甘肃省
Keywords:
SyphilisARIMAForecastGansu province
分类号:
R 759.1
DOI:
10.13735/j.cjdv.1001-7089.201403025
文献标志码:
B
摘要:
目的评价自回归移动平均(autoregressive integrated moving average,ARIMA)模型在预测梅毒发病趋势中的作用,为各地制定梅毒防治策略提供科学的参考依据。方法收集甘肃省2004-2013年梅毒发病数资料,用SPSS软件拟合ARIMA模型并预测2014年梅毒月发病情况。结果拟合ARIMA(1,1,2)(0,1,1)12模型为甘肃省梅毒月发病率预测的最佳模型,残差为白噪声的短期预测,预测值与实际值平均相对误差值很低,且实际值均在预测值的95%可信区间范围,即预测结果可靠。结论ARIMA模型能较好的预测梅毒发病的短期变化趋势,可供制定梅毒预防控制措施进行参考。
Abstract:
ObjectiveTo forecast its tendency of syphilis incidence in Gansu with ARIMA model,which may provide a scientific proof for making the following preventive and control measure.MethodsBased on the data of syphilis monthly cases during 2004-2013 to forecast the incidence levels in 2014 with ARIMA model by SPSS.ResultsARIMA (1,1,2)(0,1,1)12 is the best forecasting model of syphilis monthly incidence rate model.The residual sequence is a white noise sequence of shortterm prediction.The relative error in average is lower between the forecasting value and the real value.And the real value in the 95% confidence interval range of the forecasting value.The prediction result is reliable.ConclusionARIMA model can provide the forecast in its incidence tendency of syphilis in short time,which can be used to predict the the strategies of control and prevention.

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备注/Memo

备注/Memo:
[基金项目]甘肃卫生行业科研计划资助目(编号:GSWSKY-2014-22)
更新日期/Last Update: 2015-02-25