[1]陈涛,蒋忠胜,李敏基,等.马尔尼菲蓝状菌病预后危险因素Logistic回归分析及预后模型的建立[J].中国皮肤性病学杂志,2018,(05):518-522.[doi:10.13735/j.cjdv.1001-7089.201708106]
　CHEN Tao,JIANG Zhonsheng,LI Minji,et al.Logistic Regression Analysis of Prognostic Risk Factors for Talaromycosis Marneffei and Establishment of Prognostic Model[J].The Chinese Journal of Dermatovenereology,2018,(05):518-522.[doi:10.13735/j.cjdv.1001-7089.201708106]
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马尔尼菲蓝状菌病预后危险因素Logistic回归分析及预后模型的建立
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《中国皮肤性病学杂志》[ISSN:1001-7089/CN:61-1197/R]

卷:
期数:
2018年05期
页码:
518-522
栏目:
临床经验
出版日期:
2018-05-01

文章信息/Info

Title:
Logistic Regression Analysis of Prognostic Risk Factors for Talaromycosis Marneffei and Establishment of Prognostic Model
作者:
陈涛; 蒋忠胜; 李敏基; 胡家光; 莫胜林; 张鹏; 柯柳; 韦静彬
广西科技大学附属柳州市人民医院感染病科,广西 柳州 545006
Author(s):
CHEN Tao;  JIANG Zhonsheng;  LI Minji;  HU Jiaguang;  MO Shenglin; ZHANG Peng; KE Liu; WEI Jingbin
Department of Infectious Diseases, the People's Hospital of Liuzhou,Liuzhou 545006,China
关键词:
获得性免疫缺陷综合征;  马尔尼菲蓝状菌病;  预后;  危险因素;  回归分析
Keywords:
AIDS;  Talaromycosis marneffei;  Prognosis;  Risk factors;  Regression analysis
分类号:
R 756
DOI:
10.13735/j.cjdv.1001-7089.201708106
文献标志码:
B
摘要:
目的 研究艾滋病(AIDS)合并马尔尼菲蓝状菌病(TSM)患者预后的危险因素,并建立预后判断模型。方法 回顾性收集2011年1月-2014年1月在广西柳州市人民医院收治的100例TSM患者的临床资料,运用非条件Logistic回归分析建立预后模型。用独立的TSM资料进行评判预后模型的预测价值。结果 100例患者中好转组64例,恶化组36例,恶化组中23例死亡,病死率23.00%(23/100)。Logistic回归分析结果显示白细胞、血小板、谷草转氨酶和CD4+T淋巴细胞计数作为独立的危险因素可用于预后判断模型的建立。对所构建模型预测的灵敏度、特异性、阳性预测值、阴性预测值和总正确率分别为88.00%、84.00%、84.62%、87.50%和86.00%。结论 白细胞、血小板、谷草转氨酶、CD4+T淋巴细胞计数作为独立的危险因素可用于预后判断模型的构建。本研究中所构建的预后模型能够较准确的预测AIDS合并TSM患者的短期预后。
Abstract:
Objective To study prognostic risk factors and establish a prognostic model for patients with AIDS combined with talaromycosis marneffei(TSM). Methods The clinical data of 100 inpatients with TSM who had been treated in The People's Hospital of Liuzhou from January 2011 to January 2014 were retrospectively analyzed. Non-condition logistic regression analysis was used to develop a prognostic model, the predictive value of which was evaluated using independent TSM data. Results Of 100 patients, there were 64 in recovery group and 36 in deterioration group, of which 23 died, with a fatality rate of 23.00%. Logistic regression analysis indicated that white blood cells, platelets, glutamic oxalacetic transaminase(GOT)and CD4+T lymphocyte count as independent risk factors could be used to establish the prognostic model. The sensitivity and specificity of prediction, positive predictive value, negative predictive value and total accuracy of prediction of the model were 88.00%, 84.00%, 84.62%, 87.05% and 86.00%, respectively. Conclusion White blood cell, platelets, GOT, CD4+T lymphocyte count as independent risk factors can be used to establish the prognostic model, thereby predicting the short-term prognosis of patients with AIDS combined with TSM.

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备注/Memo

备注/Memo:
[基金项目] 广西卫生厅自筹课题(Z2016799); 柳州市科学研究与技术开发计划课题(2015J030519,2016G020210)
[通讯作者] 蒋忠胜,E-mail:jiangzs1111@126.com
更新日期/Last Update: 2018-05-01